Yankees Still A Favorite - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Yankees Still A Favorite Stuck

Posted on February 20, 2013 at 11:09 AM.

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It was an uncharacteristically quiet winter for Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees. The Yankees winter was best epitomized by who they didn�t go after. They were never in on Zack Greinke or Josh Hamilton, the two premier names on the free agent market. They weren�t even in on the second tier of free agents like Michael Bourn or Ryan Dempster. They even let their own �big� free agents walk away with Nick Swisher signing with the Cleveland Indians, Rafael Soriano signing with the Washington Nationals, and Russell Martin signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Yankees winter was so quiet that they were even upstaged on the trade market by the Toronto Blue Jays, who imported an all-star team.

Given the age of the remaining Yankees and their seeming stubbornness to get under the luxury tax penalty, it is being portrayed that there are little expectations for the perennial playoff contender. While they didn�t sign a big name and they are going to be the oldest team in the league, there is one thing that is being neglected. They are still a pretty good team.

Because of the way they lost in the ALCS, it is easy to forget that the Yankees did win 95 games last season and were four victories away from going to another World Series. That 95 win team led the American League in on base percentage and slugging percentage and finished second in runs scored. Their starting rotation was just one of two rotations to pitch over 1,000 innings and would rank fourth among AL rotations in terms of WAR. And, that was despite having ace CC Sabathia on the disabled list twice, Andy Pettitte out for an extended period of time, and Ivan Nova struggling for much of the season. The bullpen ranked fifth in terms of WAR, while posting the second best strikeout rate in the American League.

The thought is that the Yankees didn�t do much of anything this winter. But, that ignores the fact that they re-signed Hiroki Kuroda (1 year $15 million) and Andy Pettitte (1 year $12 million) to bring back their complete rotation for 2013. With CC Sabathia leading the way and Phil Hughes entering his free agent season as the number four starter, the Yankees rotation remains deep. As for the fifth spot, Ivan Nova will battle David Phelps, a battle that most teams would wish to have. As with every part of this team, there is age. Sabathia is 32 years old, Kuroda is 37, and Pettitte turned 41. But, Kuroda has been durable throughout his career. And, even Pettitte can still be considered durable. He missed time last season after being struck with a line drive that broke his ankle. Sabathia did have trouble last season, but his overall career has been remarkably durable. If last year is the beginning of a trend for Sabathia, the Yankees won�t compete.

Even with the chance of injury, the rotation actually projects to be better in 2013. Pettitte is back for a full year. Hughes is now a couple of years removed from injury and knows that he will hit the free agent market next year. It was announced that he has a disc problem and will be shut down for two weeks, but thus far the Yankees are saying it is nothing serious. The fifth spot should be better than league average.

The bullpen did lose Rafael Soriano, but it gets the immediate boost because of the return of Mariano Rivera. Rivera broke his leg last season in a freak accident while shagging flyballs in Kansas City. But, he is healthy and there is no indication that he won�t return to being a dominant closer. Entering his age 43 season, Rivera will be limited in appearances, but until he proves otherwise, he is an elite closer. He will be flanked by David Robertson, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain and, likely, the loser of the fifth starter competition. The bullpen will also get another veteran, David Aardsma, to serve as a late inning reliever. The 31 year old right handed reliever is now recovered from Tommy John Surgery after missing all of 2011 and most of 2012. But, few remember that he saved 68 games during the 2009 and 2010 seasons for the Seattle Mariners. Brian Cashman also claimed Shawn Kelley off of waivers after the Mariners designated him for assignment. Kelley works in the mid 90�s and posted a strikeout rate of 9.14 per nine innings during his 44 appearances last season. He will battle Cody Eppley and Clay Rapada for the remaining spot in the bullpen.

With bullpen depth and a rotation that does make a habit of pitching deep into games, the Yankees pitching staff is a strength and one of the best in the division, with only the Tampa Bay Rays rivaling them. The pitching staff will shoulder a bit more of the burden because the Yankees do enter 2013 with a less powerful offense than they had in 2012.

That does not mean, however, that the offense will be a liability. They do lose Swisher and Martin�s production from the everyday lineup. They also lost role players such as Eric Chavez, Raul Ibanez, and Andruw Jones, who all had moments last season. And, as much as Alex Rodriguez is maligned, they do lose his production. Even at a reduced rate, Rodriguez did produce a .783 OPS, which was sixth best among American League third basemen. Chavez was actually better, posting an .845 OPS, fourth best in the AL. But, Chavez signed with Arizona and Rodriguez could be lost for most of the season due to another hip surgery and another PED scandal.

With Cashman needing a third baseman, he signed the best available option in Kevin Youkilis (1 year $12 million). While he likely would have liked to use those funds elsewhere, Youkilis projects, at worst, to give what Rodriguez produced last season. In 2012, Youkilis hit a career worst .233/.336/.409 with 15 doubles and 19 home runs. But, Youkilis started very slowly, battled with Bobby Valentine. and was ultimately pushed out of Boston. A slight rebound can be expected to perhaps a slash line of .260/.370/.460 with 20 home runs. Of course, he brings a plate discipline, works the count, and has a high walk rate. And, he is still around the league average mark defensively at third base.

The Yankees, as has been widely discussed, did not sign a catcher to replace the departed Russell Martin. Instead, the Yankees will go with veteran receiver Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli. Neither are going to replace the 21 home runs Martin hit, but let�s not make it out that the Yankees are replacing Josh Gibson with the Stewart/Cervelli tandem. Martin hit just .211/.311/.403 for the season. And, he posted a minus-6 DRS rating last season. They will lose power, but Stewart will provide better defense. There is also a chance that Austin Romine wins the job out of spring training. While his bat is behind his defensive skills, he has the tools to be an above average defender.

The outfield offense will also look different as Ichiro Suzuki replaces Nick Swisher in right field and Brett Gardner returns to man left field. Both are elite defenders who cover ground. That will help centerfielder Curtis Granderson who, at least according to the metrics, is regressing defensively. Automatically, the outfield defense is far better than the one the Yankees fielded in 2012. Offensively, the Yankees will hope that Suzuki is closer to the player they saw at the end of the season than the one who finished his final one and half years in Seattle. If Suzuki can hit .280/.330/.370 and steal 25 bases, he will be an asset. With his high contact rate of 90 percent (compared to the league average of 79 percent), Suzuki will give the Yankees something they lacked for most of last year: an everyday player who isn�t dependent on the home run or prone to the strikeout. Gardner brings a similar skill set and could be reasonably projected to hit .270/.360/.380 and steal 40 bases. With Suzuki and Gardner likely bookending the lineup, the Yankees will have a far different style than the 2012 team that relied on the home run ball so much.

Derek Jeter seems on track to return from ankle surgery. While he will require more rest, Jeter is still one of the more productive shortstops in baseball. A .300/.360/.400 season is well within reasonable expectations for the 39 year old. Along with either Suzuki or Gardner at the top of the order, Jeter will be a catalyst for the middle of the Yankees� order.

That order is anchored by Robinson Cano, the 30 year old second baseman who is entering his free agent season. While still in his prime, Cano can at least duplicate his 2012 season that saw him hit .313/.379/.550 and make a run at the MVP Award. Mark Teixeira is regressing; there is no questioning that. But, at age 33, he is still an above average power hitter. The switch hitter could be a .250/.360/.500 hitter and hit over 30 home runs while still providing above average defense. While Cano is a given to produce, Teixeira will have to prove that he isn�t the second coming of the New York Jason Giambi, who aged quite poorly.

While Teixeira is important, the Yankees most important power hitter is Curtis Granderson. The 32 year old seemed to have figured it out in 2011, but he regressed in 2012 to hit just .232/.319/.492 with 43 home runs. While the home run total is great, Granderson struck out at a 28 percent rate. He will have to return to the form similar to 2011 if he expects to land a big free agent deal after the season. The power will be there, but his approach has to change.

The Yankees are an older team. But, Cashman has stocked the bench with some useful parts. 26 year old Eduardo Nunez will be the Yankees most important role player. He�ll be the primary backup at shortstop, but will also find time at designated hitter. He�s someone who aspires to be a league average hitter in terms of on base percentage, but he makes contact at a high rate, can run the bases well, and does have some power. For a bench player, he is valuable. Nunez will likely be joined by three veterans who will fill roles well. Juan Rivera, Matt Diaz, and Travis Hafner are all role players at this point in their respective careers, but they are still useful. Rivera and Diaz provide right handed alternatives to the Yankees� all-left handed outfield. Travis Hafner can�t be expected to stay healthy, but he is a hitter who still hits right handed pitching well and should find Yankee Stadium to his liking. Jason Nix is also still in the mix for a utility role.

The Yankees bench is reflective of what Brian Cashman does best. He�s found role players who can not only provide a rest for the starters, but can flourish in limited roles. With the utility of the bench, the veteran team will be provided with rest without a severe drop off in production. He has provided Manager Joe Girardi will a myriad of match up options and enough depth that will allow Girardi to comfortably rest his players.

The Yankees are, indeed, old. They didn�t make any splashy moves this winter. Most of the division got better. The Blue Jays have a new rotation headlined by the National League Cy Young Award winner and now have a shortstop who is one of the best in the league. The Red Sox are improved. The Rays are still a great team. But, those headline-less Yankees are still a favorite to win the division. They are still a favorite to get to the playoffs. They still have a strong pitching staff that will support an offense that will still score runs. They may not hit 245 home runs, but they are a patient lineup with better athleticism in addition to the powerful middle of the order.

Meaningless Prediction: The Yankees finish 91-71, second in the AL East and win a wildcard berth.

Sound off OS: Where do the Yankees finish in 2013?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes at fullcountpitch.com. Join the twitter conversation @garyarmida.